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Tim Condon's avatar

Would trade deals with Japan and Korea that included de-coupling components be as disruptive as an EU one? Any conjecture as to which is most likely?

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Brian Mccarthy's avatar

I think one of the reasons Japan and South Korea are banking at deals is that disentangling from China is more expensive for them. Of course they are. We’re also political issues in both countries, but they also risk more by pissing off China.

It sounds like the EU deal is close to done. I imagine it will have to entail some breaks on the sectoral tariffs, particularly on autos. And Trump doesn’t seem to be in a mood to be giving anybody any breaks this week, so perhaps that’s the hold up.

As for strategic decoupling, the EU seems ready to do that with or without a deal.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3317721/eu-boosts-china-de-risking-efforts-plans-regain-control-key-sectors

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Inge Kjaer Sorensen's avatar

Agree. 100%.

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